Please reload


Please reload



Data Defies Returns

October 24, 2016

I’ve said it before – twice actually – but I must ask again. Why is the market going up and up when the hard economic data indicates that the economy should be in or near a recession?

Considering the following, the returns become even more unbelievable. For instance, private sector GDP is up a shade more than 1 percent, year-over-year. Since the late 60′s, such levels meant a recession was happening or about to occur.


Industrial production has been trending downward since late 2014, and historically speaking, long declines don’t happen outside of recessions. Additionally, the past two years of capital spending has declined, which has almost always coincided with a recession. But maybe these are extraordinary times indeed.


Want more recession signals?


New home building permits have trended negatively over the last 12 months. Same with exports. Year-over-year change of industrial sales is negative. Tax receipts are down. Since February, the markets have pointed towards improvement. But nearing the end of 2016, are we seeing it? Maybe it’s because we’re in an election year. And what will happen if rates rise?


Given the context, I’m not sure there’s a winning outcome here overall.

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Please reload


Pennsylvania Office

P (610) 358-8942

F (610) 358-8943

Delaware Office

P (302) 449-0111

F (302) 449-1888


51 Woodland Drive
Glen Mills, PA  19342

291A Carter Drive
Middletown, DE 19709



Check the background of your financial professional on FINRA’s BrokerCheck.

This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. Please consult with a professional specializing in these areas regarding the applicability of this information to your situation.

Andrew Wood, Dan Simon and Alison Slezak are Investment Advisor Representatives. Advisory services are offered through CoreCap Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor. CoreCap Advisors, LLC and Daniel A. White & Associates, LLC are separate & unaffiliated entities. 

© 2018 Daniel A. White & Associates, LLC. All right reserved. Built by Atwood Sites.

PA OFFICE: (610) 358-8942
DE OFFICE: (302) 449-0111